The Contingent Effects of Ballot Initiatives and Candidate Races on Turnout

comments and conversations. Stacey Mann and Claire Rasmussen provided critical research assistance. Dane Waters of the Initiative and Referendum Institute generously lent a database of initiatives that was used to isolate the population under study. 1This study analyzes the potential of campaigns for ballot measures and elected offices to draw to the polls citizens who otherwise would not vote. The salience of initiatives and popular referenda in each U.S. state is measured for general elections from 1972-1996. Using a pooled time series--cross-sectional data set, a model of state-level turnout is estimated. Distinguishing between midterm and presidential years, the analysis tests for the effects of campaigns across those two kinds of contexts. Contrary to previous studies finding no effects at all for ballot initiatives, the results indicate that these measures--like gubernatorial and senatorial campaigns--provide a boost to turnout during midterm years but not presidential years. High-salience initiatives and popular referenda are estimated to increase turnout by about four points during midterm elections, as compared to effects for closely contested gubernatorial and senatorial campaigns of four points and three points, respectively. The longstanding debate over the desirability of letting voters decide upon initiatives and