BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to identify predictors for the transition from long-term sickness absence into disability pension with a special focus on gender. METHODS: The study used data from a national database containing a 10% random sample of the Norwegian adult population (The KIRUT database). The study population were all individuals in the database who on 1 January 1990 were eligible for sick pay from the Norwegian National Insurance System: 83,398 men and 75,586 women. Individuals below 60 years with long-term sickness absence starting in 1990 and 1991 were identified, 6,434 men and 8,233 women, and followed up for three years. Background data were used as independent variables in a logistic regression of the probability for receiving disability pension during follow-up. RESULTS: Annual cumulative incidence of long-term sickness absence was 6.5% for women and 4.9% for men. During follow-up, 12.4% of the women and 12.6% of the men received disability pension. Among full-time employed women only 10.3% had become disability pensioners, while the corresponding proportion for women working part-time was 15.5%. For men the figures were 12.1% (full-time) and 18.1% (part-time). In the logistic regression of the whole sample the female odds ratio was insignificant. The dominant predictive factors for disability pension were age and duration of the sickness spells. Working part-time also increased the risk. Higher levels of education and having children below 7 years reduced the probability for disability pension. Separate regressions for men and women showed that the 'protective' effect of having small children only remained for women.
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Sturla Gjesdal (2002) studied this question.