Got Risk? The Role of Risk Analysis in High School Education

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Eva Andrijcic, UVA Got Risk? The Role of Risk Analysis in High School Education As an important element of systems engineering, decision analysis, and business curricula, courses in risk assessment and management provide students with the knowledge and skills necessary to systematically and holistically identify the possible sources of risk and ways to manage them, thus, preparing them to become better problem solvers in the world of complex issues. These skills are generally not taught in pre‐college classes, but, as this paper shows, they can be successfully taught to high school students through simple conceptual and graphical models, and engaging hands‐on activities. The early exposure to the type of thinking required by these models, promotes holistic, systems‐based thinking for students possessing different levels of quantitative skills. Risk analysis classes might be especially appropriate at the high school level where students are developing emotionally, socially and physically, and are exposed, individually and as a group, to a sudden need to explore the boundaries of accepted norms and behaviors. By teaching them how to think critically and holistically about the issues that are relevant to them, and the associated risks, available options, and related costs and benefits, we enable students to continue the learning process outside the classroom – we enable them to continually apply systems thinking to real life problems. Given that the general topics explored in undergraduate‐ and graduate‐ level risk analysis classes are inappropriate and overly complex for high‐school students, the key for the success of this program is to create age‐appropriate and relevant examples that students can identify with. This paper introduces example topics for grades 9‐12 that can be covered in a few class sessions. Discussed example problems build on the simplified versions of the Hierarchical Holographic Model, fault tree models, and decision tree models. Additional hands on activities through which students can assess risk and apply critical, systems‐based thinking are also introduced, as are suggestions for teachers on how to structure and facilitate these activities. Furthermore, this paper discusses how these activities were implemented and received by a group of 9‐11 students in a summer camp for high performing students during Summer 2011.