Do insulin resistance-related markers predict the risk of incident heart disease and stroke in Chinese adults across different glycemic states?
The estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) is the most effective insulin resistance-related marker for predicting incident heart disease and stroke across different glycemic states in Chinese adults.
Background: This study compares the association of eight insulin resistance (IR)-related markers (triglyceride-glucose index (TyG), TyG-body mass index (TyG-BMI), TyG-waist circumference (TyG-WC), TyG-waist-to-height ratio (TyG-WHtR), triglycerides-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL), lipid accumulation product (LAP), visceral adiposity index (VAI), and estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR)) with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods: Spearman's coefficients were used for correlations between IR-related markers. Predictive capacities were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Akaike Information Criterion, and Bayesian Information Criterion were calculated. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models and restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis were performed to explore associations between IR-related markers and CVD. Results: In Pearson correlation analysis, TyG-WC and TyG-WHtR had a correlation coefficient of 0.95, while TG/HDL ratio and VAI had a correlation coefficient of 0.97. Regarding predictive capacity across different glycemic states, eGDR showed the best performance among the 8 IR-related markers, particularly in predicting stroke. According to Cox regression analysis, with each unit increase in TyG, TyG-BMI, TyG-WC, and TyG-WHtR, the risk of heart disease increased by 24.1%, 0.4%, 0.1%, and 17.56%, respectively; and the risk of stroke increased by 69.3%, 0.6%, 0.2%, and 36.5%, respectively. Additionally, TG/HDL ratio, VAI, and LAP exhibited nonlinear associations with heart disease and stroke risk. For each unit increase in eGDR, the risks of heart disease and stroke decreased by 21% and 14.2%, respectively. Conclusion: eGDR is the most effective marker for predicting CVD, especially stroke, across all glycemic states. Modified TyG indices provide better predictive value than TyG alone.
Zhang et al. (Thu,) studied this question.