Is major war obsolete?

Major war - war waged by the most powerful countries drawing on all their resources and using all their weapons over a period of years, with revolutionary political consequences - is obsolete. In the twentieth century, the costs of fighting such a war have soared, while the perceived benefits of winning one have shrivelled. While out of fashion, however, major war is not impossible. Although neither is eager for such a conflict, Russia and China, two powerful nations less affected by the social forces that have reduced the incentives for war, are the countries most likely to begin one.