Key result
EuroSCORE II accurately predicts post-cardiac surgery in-hospital mortality with an AUC of 0.85.
Why the study?
EuroSCORE II is an established risk model to predict mortality after cardiac surgery, but its application in Indonesian adult cardiac surgery is still unknown.
Does the EuroSCORE II model accurately predict in-hospital mortality in Indonesian adults undergoing cardiac surgery?
Cohort (n=213)
No
Does the EuroSCORE II model accurately predict in-hospital mortality in Indonesian adults undergoing cardiac surgery?
Effect estimate: AUC 0.85 (95% CI 0.77-0.92)
p-value: p=<0.001
EuroSCORE II demonstrated good discrimination for estimating in-hospital mortality among Indonesian cardiac surgery patients, validating its utility as a risk stratification tool in this demographic.
May support preoperative risk stratification with EuroSCORE II in Indonesian cardiac surgery patients; extends validation to Southeast Asian cohorts.
BACKGROUND The European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) II is one of the established risk models used to predict mortality after cardiac surgery. However, its application as a mortality predictor for Indonesian adult cardiac surgery is still unknown. This study aimed to examine the validation of EuroSCORE II in predicting the mortality following adult cardiac surgery in Indonesian adults. METHODS This retrospective cohort study collected data from the medical records and the database of the Department of Thoracic Cardiac and Vascular Surgery at Soetomo General Hospital, Surabaya. Data on the EuroSCORE II variables were collected for patients aged >18 years who underwent coronary artery bypass, heart valve, heart tumors, aortic surgeries, or a combination of these surgeries between January 2016 and December 2018. In-hospital mortality prediction was calculated using the online calculator at www.euroscore.org. The calibration of the EuroSCORE II model was conducted using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test, and discrimination analysis was done using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with area under the ROC curve (AUC) calculation. RESULTS A total of 213 patients met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed for this study. Mortality was 8.9%. The predicted and actual mortalities were 1.74% and 8.9%, respectively. The significance (p-value) of the Hosmer–Lemeshow test was 0.55, indicating good calibration. The AUC of ROC curve was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.77–0.92, p<0.001), suggesting good discrimination. CONCLUSIONS EuroSCORE II has a good calibration and discrimination for cardiac surgery in Indonesian adults.
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Sembiring et al. (2021) conducted a cohort in Cardiac surgery (n=213). EuroSCORE II was evaluated on In-hospital mortality prediction discrimination (AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.92, p=<0.001). The EuroSCORE II model demonstrated good discrimination for predicting in-hospital mortality in Indonesian adults following cardiac surgery with an AUC of 0.85.
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