The First Demographic Transition: An Analysis of Subsistence Choices and Reproductive Consequences

Demographers tend to account for the low growth rates through most of human history by reference to high levels of fertility and mortality. In contrast, anthropologists commonly suppose that Pleistocene growth rates stemmed from low levels of fertility and mortality, and that the increased rate of growth at the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition stemmed from an increase in fertility. This paper adduces evidence supporting the view that Pleistocene growth rates reflect moderate levels of births, and that the increased rate of growth at the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition reflected a decrease in mortality which, over time, was replaced by a demographic transition to high birth and death rates. There is evidence that fertility did not respond to demand for children. Variation in fertility is accounted for by behavioral change following from demand for an adequate and reliable flow of income. [prehistoric demography, natural fertility, decision‐models of fertility]