Predictive Framework for Membrane Fouling in Full-Scale Membrane Bioreactors (MBRs): Integrating AI-Driven Feature Engineering and Explainable AI (XAI)

Membrane fouling remains a major challenge in full-scale membrane bioreactor (MBR) systems, reducing operational efficiency and increasing maintenance needs. This study introduces a predictive and analytic framework for membrane fouling by integrating artificial intelligence (AI)-driven feature engineering and explainable AI (XAI) using real-world data from an MBR treating food processing wastewater. The framework refines the target parameter to specific flux (flux/transmembrane pressure (TMP)), incorporates chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiency to reflect biological performance, and applies a moving average function to capture temporal fouling dynamics. Among tested models, CatBoost achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.8374), outperforming traditional statistical and other machine learning models. XAI analysis identified the food-to-microorganism (F/M) ratio and mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSSs) as the most influential variables affecting fouling. This robust and interpretable approach enables proactive fouling prediction and supports informed decision making in practical MBR operations, even with limited data. The methodology establishes a foundation for future integration with real-time monitoring and adaptive control, contributing to more sustainable and efficient membrane-based wastewater treatment operations. However, this study is based on data from a single full-scale MBR treating food processing wastewater and lacks severe fouling or cleaning events, so further validation with diverse datasets is needed to confirm broader applicability.