Dynamics of Theory Change in the Social Sciences

The extent to which theories in the social sciences are accepted or rejected on the basis of empirical tests can be shown only by a detailed analysis of specific cases. The author examines the reception by social scientists in the 1970s and early 1980s of T. R. Gurr's theory of collective violence based on the concept of relative deprivation. The history of this theory may be considered an example of definite progress in social science: a hypothesis widely accepted at one time has been tested and rejected, thus making room for the development of alternative hypotheses. But although Gurr and other advocates of the theory have abandoned it in its original form following the mostly negative results of empirical tests, many social scientists (especially psychologists) have continued to cite it favorably. Slightly less than half of the unfavorable citations have been supported by references to empirical evidence.