Pave the Way to Diversion: Increased Salience of Foreign Policy at the Times of Economic Hardships

Most research on the diversionary use of force focuses on timing of conflict initiation and target selection, often treating the public as passive observers ready to take the bait. This article challenges this assumption by examining how leaders strategically elevate foreign policy issues in public discourse before resorting to the use of force. We argue that economic downturns lead to anticipatory rhetorical agenda-setting, through which leaders increase the salience of foreign policy in shaping the conditions under which military actions become feasible. Using a large language model, we measure foreign policy salience in 29,286 US presidential addresses and remarks between 1945 and 2019. Combining these data with monthly inflation and US military interventions, we examine whether patterns in presidential rhetoric are consistent with a rhetorical pathway linking economic distress to the use of force. The results are consistent with our theoretical expectation. Higher inflation is associated with increased foreign policy salience in presidential speeches and heightened salience is, in turn, associated with a greater likelihood of military intervention, while inflation itself exhibits no robust direct relationship with the use of force. Our findings align with the expectation that diversionary dynamics may unfold as a mediated process in which leaders place greater rhetorical emphasis on foreign policy issues prior to the use of force. By highlighting the role of anticipatory agenda-setting, this study offers a nuanced perspective on diversionary conflict and highlights the importance of presidential rhetoric as a key component of foreign policy outcome.