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Although the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is well underway and expected to continue in global car markets, most vehicles on the world’s roads will be powered by internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and fossil fuels for the foreseeable future, possibly well past 2050. Thus, good environmental performance and effective emission control of ICE vehicles will continue to be of paramount importance if the world is to achieve the stated air and climate pollution reduction goals. In this study, we review 228 publications and identify four main issues confronting these objectives: (1) cheating by vehicle manufacturers, (2) tampering by vehicle owners, (3) malfunctioning emission control systems, and (4) inadequate in-service emission programs. With progressively more stringent vehicle emission and fuel quality standards being implemented in all major markets, engine designs and emission control systems have become increasingly complex and sophisticated, creating opportunities for cheating and tampering. This is not a new phenomenon, with the first cases reported in the 1970s and continuing to happen today. Cheating appears not to be restricted to specific manufacturers or vehicle types. Suspicious real-world emissions behavior suggests that the use of defeat devices may be widespread. Defeat devices are primarily a concern with diesel vehicles, where emission control deactivation in real-world driving can lower manufacturing costs, improve fuel economy, reduce engine noise, improve vehicle performance, and extend refill intervals for diesel exhaust fluid, if present. Despite the financial penalties, undesired global attention, damage to brand reputation, a temporary drop in sales and stock value, and forced recalls, cheating may continue. Private vehicle owners resort to tampering to (1) improve performance and fuel efficiency; (2) avoid operating costs, including repairs; (3) increase the resale value of the vehicle (i.e., odometer tampering); or (4) simply to rebel against established norms. Tampering and cheating in the commercial freight sector also mean undercutting law-abiding operators, gaining unfair economic advantage, and posing excess harm to the environment and public health. At the individual vehicle level, the impacts of cheating, tampering, or malfunctioning emission control systems can be substantial. The removal or deactivation of emission control systems increases emissions—for instance, typically 70% (NOx and EGR), a factor of 3 or more (NOx and SCR), and a factor of 25–100 (PM and DPF). Our analysis shows significant uncertainty and (geographic) variability regarding the occurrence of cheating and tampering by vehicle owners. The available evidence suggests that fleet-wide impacts of cheating and tampering on emissions are undeniable, substantial, and cannot be ignored. The presence of a relatively small fraction of high-emitters, due to either cheating, tampering, or malfunctioning, causes excess pollution that must be tackled by environmental authorities around the world, in particular in emerging economies, where millions of used ICE vehicles from the US and EU end up. Modernized in-service emission programs designed to efficiently identify and fix large faults are needed to ensure that the benefits of modern vehicle technologies are not lost. Effective programs should address malfunctions, engine problems, incorrect repairs, a lack of servicing and maintenance, poorly retrofitted fuel and emission control systems, the use of improper or low-quality fuels and tampering. Periodic Test and Repair (PTR) is a common in-service program. We estimate that PTR generally reduces emissions by 11% (8–14%), 11% (7–15%), and 4% (−1–10%) for carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and oxides of nitrogen (NOx), respectively. This is based on the grand mean effect and the associated 95% confidence interval. PTR effectiveness could be significantly higher, but we find that it critically depends on various design factors, including (1) comprehensive fleet coverage, (2) a suitable test procedure, (3) compliance and enforcement, (4) proper technician training, (5) quality control and quality assurance, (6) periodic program evaluation, and (7) minimization of waivers and exemptions. Now that both particulate matter (PM, i.e., DPF) and NOx (i.e., SCR) emission controls are common in all modern new diesel vehicles, and commonly the focus of cheating and tampering, robust measurement approaches for assessing in-use emissions performance are urgently needed to modernize PTR programs. To increase (cost) effectiveness, a modern approach could include screening methods, such as remote sensing and plume chasing. We conclude this study with recommendations and suggestions for future improvements and research, listing a range of potential solutions for the issues identified in new and in-service vehicles.
Smit et al. (Tue,) studied this question.