The contagiousness of coercion: The spread of serious international disputes, 1900–1976

Does the use or threatened use of force by one nation against another encourage further threats and more violence? The available evidence indicates that this has been true for this century. At the global level one finds that the initiation of a serious international dispute increases the likelihood that another dispute will occur somewhere in the world. Further study reveals that this contagious process operates predominately within, rather than between, regions, indicating that subsequent disputes tend to be regional “after‐shocks” rather than “spill‐overs” from disputes in other regions. Limited evidence does not in general support the notion that nations become addicted to the use or threatened use of force. Consequently, it appears that the use of coercion within a region encourages other nations to behave similarly within that same region. This supports the conclusion that coercion is regionally infectious.