Live Bovine Animal Export Dynamics and Structural Heterogeneity Across European Member States, 2014-2024: A Cluster -Based Analysis

The European Union (EU) cattle sector is facing major structural reforms related to the implementation of the European Green Deal Farm to Fork Strategy and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2023–2027. This study examines changes in the export of live bovine animals and cattle population dynamics across the EU–23 Member States over the period 2014-2024. Several EU Member States experienced notable year-to-year fluctuations in live bovine animal exports relative to cattle populations. The export and live bovine animal population long-term growth trends were applied to a time series. Export Intensity and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) indicator were applied to a time series. In addition, hierarchical and K – means cluster analysis were used to identify differences between EU-23 Member States. The analysis revealed a decoupled dynamic: while live bovine animal export increased by 58% (from EUR 2.26 billion to EUR 3.58 billion), the total cattle population declined by 8.6% (from 76.2 to 69.7 million head). Three distinct clusters of EU Member States were identified: (1) countries with high export intensity and declining cattle population; (2) countries with rapid export growth of live bovine animals from low baseline cattle population (growth-driven cluster); and (3) countries with low live bovine animal export intensity and domestic market orientation. These findings suggest the presence of heterogeneity within the EU–23 Member States in the EU cattle sector and raise concerns regarding long-term competition in live bovine animal exports.