Post-Accession Structural Transformation of the Croatian Dairy and Beef Sectors Under CAP: A Partial Equilibrium Model-Based Assessment of Contraction Dynamics and Food Security Implications

Croatia’s accession to the European Union in 2013, followed by the abolition of the EU milk quota regime in 2015, exposed a structurally vulnerable dairy and beef sector to the dual pressure of single-market price convergence and post-quota production reallocation. While prior partial equilibrium modelling work on Croatian agriculture has assessed broad accession impacts and CAP reform scenario comparisons, no study has yet quantified the post-quota structural transition trajectory of the Croatian dairy and beef sectors with mechanism-level interpretation under the actually implemented CAP framework. This study simulates and analytically interprets the medium-term (to 2030) trajectories of the Croatian dairy and beef sectors using the AGMEMOD partial equilibrium framework, with an updated Croatian country-level model incorporating CAP 2023–2027 parameters, the post-quota dairy module specification, and historical data extending to 2024. Results indicate continued structural contraction: dairy cow numbers decline from 70.9 thousand head (2024) to 66.0 thousand head (2030); milk production falls 8.6% to 399.6 million litres; total cattle population declines by 4.0% and beef and veal meat production falls 11.0% to 33.1 thousand tonnes. Self-sufficiency rates deteriorate to 41% for milk and 51% for beef by 2030. The study contributes empirical evidence on small Member State post-quota adjustment dynamics, demonstrates that the current CAP 2023–2027 instruments are unlikely to reverse the contraction trajectory under baseline assumptions, and raises explicit food security implications for national agri-food policy.