Key result
A four-factor clinical model predicts acute mesenteric ischemia after on-pump cardiac surgery with 0.85 AUC.
Why the study?
Predictors of acute mesenteric ischemia in patients undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery needed to be identified.
Case-Control (n=100)
Effect estimate: AUC 0.85 (95% CI 0.77-0.92)
p-value: p=<0.001
EuroScore II >7, CHF NYHA class III-IV, prolonged surgery and cardiopulmonary bypass times, high blood loss, and elevated leukocyte/platelet ratio are significant predictors of acute mesenteric ischemia following on-pump cardiac surgery.
May aid postoperative risk stratification for acute mesenteric ischemia; hypothesis-generating and requires prospective validation before clinical use.
Objective. To identify predictors of acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) in patients undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery. Material and methods. A case-control study was conducted between 2020 and 2025 and included 100 ICU patients after on-pump cardiac surgery. Key perioperative parameters were compared between patients with AMI after surgery (group 1, n=50) and eligible patients without AMI (group 2, n=50). Results. According to ROC analysis, P-POSSUM score, VIS (vascular inotropic index), chronic heart failure NYHA class III—IV, ALT, CPB and aortic cross-clamping time showed satisfactory predictive ability, whereas EuroScore II, leukocyte/platelet ratio (WPR), surgery time and blood loss demonstrated good predictive ability. Original model for predicting postoperative AMI includes four predictors: EuroScore II, WPR, surgery time and blood loss. When assessing the effectiveness of the model, AUC was 0.85±0.04 (95% CI 0.77—0.92) (p<0.001). Sensitivity was 80%, specificity — 76%. Conclusion. Perioperative predictors of AMI in early postoperative period after on-pump cardiac surgery include EuroScore II >7, CHF NYHA class III—IV, surgery time >225 min, CPB time >105 min, blood loss >275 ml, WPR >0.036.
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Ponomareva et al. (2026) conducted a case-control in Acute mesenteric ischemia after on-pump cardiac surgery (n=100). Perioperative risk factors (EuroScore II, WPR, surgery time, blood loss) vs. Patients without acute mesenteric ischemia was evaluated on Predictive ability of a model including EuroScore II, WPR, surgery time and blood loss for postoperative AMI (AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.92, p=<0.001). A model including EuroScore II, leukocyte/platelet ratio, surgery time, and blood loss predicted acute mesenteric ischemia after on-pump cardiac surgery (AUC 0.85; 95% CI 0.77-0.92; P<0.001).
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