Indonesian Throughflow Variability Under Global Warming in CMIP6 Models

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is a critical conduit connecting the tropical western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, constituting an essential component of the global ocean circulation and exerting a significant influence on its large-scale balance. Under the backdrop of global warming, both the magnitude of ITF transport and its relationships with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to undergo substantial changes. Using the SODA3.15.2 reanalysis as an observational benchmark, this study evaluates the ability of 14 CMIP6 models to simulate ITF volume transport. Following a systematic performance assessment, four poorly performing models were excluded, and the remaining 10-model ensemble was employed to construct a multi-model ensemble mean (MME). The MME is then employed to investigate the long-term trends in ITF transport during the historical period (1850–2014) and under two future emissions scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (2015–2100). During the historical period, ITF transport exhibits a transition from a weak strengthening to a weak weakening trend around 1934–1935, detected by both the sliding t-test and the Pettitt test, with relatively modest overall change. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, ITF transport weakens at rates of 0.318 Sv decade−1 and 0.466 Sv decade−1, respectively, with projected declines of approximately 3 Sv (27%) and 4 Sv (36%) by 2100. Reductions during boreal winter and spring exceed those in summer, indicating a pronounced seasonal asymmetry in the ITF response to future warming. The interannual variability of ITF is predominantly driven by ENSO, while the IOD also exerts an independent yet weaker modulating influence.