A Statistical-Learning Model for Unplanned 7-Day Readmission in Pediatrics

OBJECTIVES: The rate of pediatric 7-day unplanned readmissions is often seen as a measure of quality of care, with high rates indicative of the need for improvement of quality of care. In this study, we used machine learning on electronic health records to study predictors of pediatric 7-day readmissions. We ranked predictors by clinical significance, as determined by the magnitude of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression coefficients. METHODS: Data consisting of 50 241 inpatient and observation encounters at a single tertiary pediatric hospital were retrieved; 50% of these patients' data were used for building a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model, whereas the other half of the data were used for evaluating model performance. The categories of variables included were demographics, social determinants of health, severity of illness and acuity, resource use, diagnoses, medications, psychosocial factors, and other variables such as primary care no show. RESULTS: Previous hospitalizations and readmissions, medications, multiple comorbidities, longer current and previous lengths of stay, certain diagnoses, and previous emergency department use were the most significant predictors modifying a patient's risk of 7-day pediatric readmission. The model achieved an area under the curve of 0.778 (95% confidence interval 0.763-0.793). CONCLUSIONS: Predictors such as medications, previous and current health care resource use, history of readmissions, severity of illness and acuity, and certain psychosocial factors modified the risk of unplanned 7-day readmissions. These predictors are mostly unmodifiable, indicating that intervention plans on high-risk patients may be developed through discussions with patients and parents to identify underlying modifiable causal factors of readmissions.