A Novel Model for Enhanced Prediction and Understanding of Unplanned 30-Day Pediatric Readmission

OBJECTIVES: To develop a model to assist clinicians in reducing 30-day unplanned pediatric readmissions and to enhance understanding of risk factors leading to such readmissions. METHODS: Data consisting of 38 143 inpatient clinical encounters at a tertiary pediatric hospital were retrieved, and 50% were used for training on a multivariate logistic regression model. The pediatric Rothman Index (pRI) was 1 of the novel candidate predictors considered. Multivariate model selection was conducted by minimization of Akaike Information Criteria. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and values for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, relative risk, and accuracy were computed on the remaining 50% of the data. RESULTS: The multivariate logistic regression model of readmission consists of 7 disease diagnosis groups, 4 measures of hospital resource use, 3 measures of disease severity and/or medical complexities, and 2 variables derived from the pRI. Four of the predictors are novel, including history of previous 30-day readmissions within last 6 months (P < .001), planned admissions (P < .001), the discharge pRI score (P < .001), and indicator of whether the maximum pRI occurred during the last 24 hours of hospitalization (P = .005). An AUC of 0.79 (0.77–0.80) was obtained on the independent test data set. CONCLUSIONS: Our model provides significant performance improvements in the prediction of unplanned 30-day pediatric readmissions with AUC higher than the LACE readmission model and other general unplanned 30-day pediatric readmission models. The model is expected to provide an opportunity to capture 39% of readmissions (at a selected operating point) and may therefore assist clinicians in reducing avoidable readmissions.