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The study aims to analyze the global economic effects of U.S. import tariff announcements and the resulting trade policy uncertainty.

Trade War and Trade Policy Uncertainty in a Global Macro Model

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The study aims to analyze the global economic effects of U.S. import tariff announcements and the resulting trade policy uncertainty.
Utilized a global macroeconomic model to simulate trade war effects.
Assessed both direct and indirect economic impacts of tariffs and uncertainty.
Focused on scenario analysis to evaluate different economic outcomes.
Trade war could decrease global output by approximately 0.5%.
Negative effects are more pronounced for the euro area and particularly severe for China.
Global impacts on inflation are estimated to remain relatively modest.

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Global macro model analyzes trade war impacts on output and inflation, suggesting significant risks for economies like China and the euro area.

Anttonen et al. (2026) studied this question.

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Global macro model analyzes trade war impacts on output and inflation, suggesting significant risks for economies like China and the euro area.