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This is a Cohort Study study (also classified as: Quantitative Study).

The Likely Micro- and Macro-Economic Consequences of a Unilateral US Trade Policy

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Unilateral trade measures may reduce US GDP by 2–3% in the short term, while also impacting long-term growth.
Key amplification channels such as supply chain fragility and investment hold-up amplify the costs of protectionism.
Utilizing computable general equilibrium models helps estimate the economic consequences of a unilateral trade policy.
Finding integrated policy frameworks is crucial to mitigate systemic risks associated with unilateral trade actions.

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Analysis shows unilateral trade measures could reduce US GDP by 2–3%, indicating potential systemic risks.

Robert Koopman (2025) studied this question.

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