The Impact of Protectionist Policies on Global Economic Growth

Protectionist policies can expand activity in selected industries while imposing costs on consumers, downstream producers and foreign trading partners. This article examines how these competing effects influence global economic growth. A structured narrative review compares eight selected academic and institutional sources, combining evidence on the 2018–2019 United States tariff episode with cross-country research and international fragmentation scenarios. The synthesis identifies price transmission, imported-input costs, retaliation, investment uncertainty and weaker international specialization as the main channels connecting protectionism to economic performance. The selected evidence generally indicates adverse aggregate effects, although their size depends on policy design, economic structure and the response of trading partners. Country-level welfare estimates, historical trade forecasts and long-run global output scenarios measure different outcomes and cannot be combined into a single growth estimate. The article concludes that narrowly justified interventions require transparent objectives, time limits and economy-wide evaluation. Productivity investment, worker adjustment assistance and diversified international sourcing offer policy options that preserve market access while addressing vulnerability. The study reports secondary evidence and analytical interpretation; it does not estimate a new causal effect.