A behavior-sensitive multi-criteria framework for policy evaluation: evidence from the EU– Türkiye migration deal

This study evaluates the 8-year performance of the EU-Türkiye Consensus. It employs a multi-criterion, behavior-based decision model to address uncertainties surrounding its future. The core problem is that the Consensus has been examined in a fragmented manner across legal, political, diplomatic, and humanitarian dimensions. As a result, there is no comprehensive scientific framework to identify the most sustainable strategic option. Existing literature focuses on isolated issues such as legal legitimacy, human rights concerns, or the EU’s externalization policies, yet lacks an integrated, criteria-based and expert-driven assessment. To fill this gap, the study aims to determine the most appropriate future strategy, assess the relative importance of key criteria, and offer evidence-based recommendations. It introduces an innovative hybrid model combining the Siemens network, IDOCRIW, RAM, RATGOS, and BLFS—an uncommon integration in the field. The Siemens network objectively determines expert weights; BLFS reduces subjectivity by incorporating experts’ leadership tendencies; and IDOCRIW captures multidimensional information through entropy–CILOS integration. Findings show that the most influential criteria are the EU’s commitment fulfillment level (0.191) and political cost (0.117). Among strategic alternatives, updating the Consensus (5.186) emerges as the most appropriate option. These results indicate that instead of dismantling the current framework or establishing a new externalization mechanism, a revised and more balanced version of the Consensus—strengthening commitments and enhancing burden-sharing—offers a more rational and sustainable policy direction. Overall, the study contributes to the literature by providing both a novel methodological model and actionable insights for policymakers.