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June 10, 2026DiagnosticsOpen Access

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Mortality Prediction in Septic Patients with Prolonged or Chronic Critical Illness

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Authors

MYMikhail Ya. YadgarovOROlga Yu. RebrovaLBLevan B. Berikashvili

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Overview

Randomized trial develops a nomogram predicting mortality in ICU patients with prolonged critical illness, suggesting high accuracy for early survival predictions.

Key Points

  • This study aims to create and validate a nomogram for predicting mortality in septic ICU patients with prolonged or chronic critical illness.
  • Data were obtained from the Russian Intensive Care Dataset (RICD).
  • Eligible patients had confirmed sepsis episodes according to Sepsis-3 criteria.
  • Multivariable Cox regression identified mortality predictors, which were incorporated into a prognostic nomogram.
  • ICU mortality was 14.0% among the 336 patients analyzed.
  • The nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.715 in the testing set, indicating moderate predictive accuracy.
  • Horizon-specific AUROCs for 14-, 28-, and 42-day survival prediction were 0.898, 0.741, and 0.703 respectively.

Cite This Study

Yadgarov et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a28ffc76f82f25be989c8dehttps://doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics16121766
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