Key result
Multivariable nomogram achieves ~0.76 C-index predicting short-term survival in septic ICU patients with HF.
Why the study?
Heart failure commonly complicates sepsis and increases adverse outcomes, requiring an effective predictive model for survival in the ICU.
Can a 13-variable nomogram model accurately predict 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day survival probabilities in septic patients with heart failure in the ICU?
Population
5,490 septic patients with heart failure in the ICU
Design
Database-derived prognostic model development and validation study
Follow-up
30 days
Authors
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May facilitate short-term prognostication in septic HF ICU patients; leaves open prospective validation before practice change.
Cohort (n=5,490)
No
Can a 13-variable nomogram model accurately predict 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day survival probabilities in septic patients with heart failure in the ICU?
A 13-variable nomogram model accurately predicts 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day survival probabilities in septic patients with heart failure in the ICU, providing a useful tool for risk stratification.
Tong et al. (2025) conducted a cohort in Sepsis with heart failure (n=5,490). Nomogram prediction model was evaluated on Concordance index (C-index) for predicting survival probabilities (test set) (95% CI 0.745-0.776). A 13-variable nomogram model accurately predicted 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day survival probabilities in septic patients with heart failure in the ICU, achieving a C-index of 0.761 in the test cohort.
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