Remote Sensing of El Niño–Southern Oscillation Impact on Methane Flux Potential from Rice Cultivation in Thailand

Rice cultivation commonly employs the continuous flooding (CF) method, which depends heavily on water availability creating anaerobic conditions for methane (CH4) emissions. Rainfed rice areas rely on precipitation for irrigation, making the system sensitive to climatic variability. This study examines associations between ENSO phases and satellite-observed atmospheric XCH4 variability over Thailand using GOSAT as the primary long-term dataset from 2012 to 2022, with Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI used as a supporting dataset for recent spatial patterns. The analysis conducted covers three cropping seasons: (1) January–April, (2) May–August, and (3) September–December. The results indicate comparable average atmospheric methane concentrations of 1787.94 ± 11.50 XCH4 (ppb) during El Niño, 1788.8 ± 11.22 XCH4 (ppb) in neutral conditions, and 1793.45 ± 10.93 XCH4 (ppb) during La Niña. The obtained data indicate a seasonal variability, with the highest satellite-observed XCH4 values found during September–December, corresponding to the main growing period of wet-season rice. The results suggest that climate change amplifies these anomalies through altered precipitation patterns and water availability. Current rice cultivation practices warrant reconsideration, in particular the alternate wetting and drying (AWD) method, offering reduced CH4 emissions while conserving water resources. This underscores the importance of water management strategies for sustainable rice production and resilience to climate variability.