Intuitive deterrence theorists…with feelings? Perceptions of Chinese resolve in a crisis

Recent experimental research has found citizens to be “intuitive deterrence theorists” who judge the resolve of foreign states based on their capabilities, material stakes, past behavior and costly signals. Yet there are good reasons to expect that subjective feelings toward the specific country in question—variables that are difficult to capture in genericized experimental designs—could also condition such judgements. We test this proposition using original 2022 data from an 11 country survey on China ( N = 13,051), and a three-pronged measure of resolve that disaggregates its military, economic and general aspects. On the one hand, citizens’ estimations of China's resolve in a crisis scenario do correlate with their perceptions of its military and economic capabilities, consistent with the expectations of deterrence theory. On the other hand, negative subjective feelings toward China were a similarly powerful predictor of higher estimations of its resolve. The results suggest that where states seek to convey a resolved image to foreign audiences, negatively disposed individuals will be more likely to perceive it, potentially entrenching opposition to compromise.