Agreement between seroprevalence- and model-based estimates of COVID-19 burden

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic caused significant global harm. Seroprevalence studies detected antibody increases from SARS-CoV-2 infection, assessing transmission and risk from infection. These studies and epidemiological modeling informed public health policy and behavior. Biases in early seroprevalence analyses caused underestimation of fatality risk, including the risk posed to pediatric populations and to those in lower-income nations. The scope of the pandemic was clarified by seroprevalence studies that better assessed at-risk groups and by adjustment of seroprevalence data for known data biases. Reassessment of seroprevalence data confirms the accuracy of early modeling. Public health authorities should inform the public of this modeling success and of the limitations of early seroprevalence analyses. This will prepare the public to better assess global health risk during future pandemics.