Relevant climatic impact-drivers for port functionality in a changing climate – an evaluation based on German seaports

Ports face a wide range of climate change threats and require much information as well as subsequent post-processing of the information’s significance for adaptation planning to identify which climatic impact-drivers (CID) require immediate attention. This study assesses which atmospheric and ocean-related climatic impact-drivers are especially relevant for German North Sea and Baltic Sea ports using literature analysis, expert interviews and a screening framework weighting multiple criteria. The study evaluates the relevance of key climatic impact-drivers − sea level, temperature, precipitation, wind, sea state, currents and water chemistry/ biology − based on projected changes, confidence levels and significance for port functions. Results show that sea level rise is the most critical concern, with a strong scientific consensus about future trends, a strong signal of change and its widespread implications for port infrastructure and operations. Sea level rise is followed by hot days and extreme temperatures, prompting ports to prepare for heat extremes. Increased precipitation intensity poses another significant hazardous potential through overloading drainage systems and compound flooding during storm surges. Despite their importance to port operations, changes in wind and wave patterns receive lower priority due to limited evidence of significant changes. The screening assessment provides port actors worldwide with a practical, first-stage approach to identify and prioritise relevant climatic impact-dirvers for subsequent vulnerability or risk assessment, supporting actionable knowledge and more targeted and efficient investigations.