Artificial intelligence and export product diversification: AI increases concentration unless productive capabilities are strong

In this letter-type paper, we investigated the impact of countries’ investments in artificial intelligence (AI) on export product diversification for the period 2012–2023. By estimating dynamic panel data models using a system Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) estimator, we found that countries’ activities in AI accelerate their specialization in exported products unless they are accompanied by strong local productive capabilities, which moderate the effect and enable the diversification of export portfolios. These results are robust across various measures of product concentration and AI, as well as across different groups of countries.