Forgive and forget? Why victims need and demand retributive justice after mass violence

Transitional justice policies promise accountability but often risk renewed instability. While prior research focuses on elites, we examine how ordinary citizens navigate the “peace vs. justice” trade-off. Drawing on Equity Theory and trauma psychology, we argue that posttraumatic stress disorder intensifies victims’ need for retribution while reducing their sensitivity to the risks of prosecutions. Analyzing nationally representative survey data from Ethiopia (N≈6,400), we find that victims with posttraumatic stress disorder are about twice as likely to express a personal need for trials and three times as likely to see trials as necessary. Mediation analyses indicate this demand is driven by personal moral need rather than instrumental concerns like deterrence or peace. Notably, untraumatized victims also demand trials at unexpectedly high rates. Our results challenge conventional expectations and show that trauma profoundly shapes transitional justice preferences. Widespread trauma may drive bottom-up pressure for trials, even where they may risk political stability.