From supplementary to substitutional: metaverse tourism futures in 2035

Purpose While previous research examined metaverse applications, to date, no study has explored metaverse tourism futures in 2035 using explanatory, exploratory and interpretive futures methods. This study addresses this gap through a distinctive selection of foresight methods to analyse the paradigm-shifting potential of the metaverse and demonstrate the value of futures methodologies for interrogating contested technological trajectories. Design/methodology/approach This qualitative study applied Inayatullah's Six Pillars framework as an iterative, multi-method scaffold integrating nine foresight techniques, grounded in a critical realism paradigm. Online futures workshops facilitated collective sense-making and worldview surfacing, enabling participants to interrogate assumptions and paradigms shaping metaverse tourism futures. The study demonstrates how futures thinking cultivates anticipatory capacity, an essential competency given the paradigm shifts likely to redefine the sector. Findings The integrated foresight framework proved effective in building contextual depth across multiple layers of analysis. Four scenarios emerged from participants' worldviews, metaphors and archetypes: The Invisible Hand, A Promised Land, Fountain of Youth and Garden of Eden. The study surfaces a disruptive proposition: that under specific structural conditions, virtual tourism may constitute a viable substitute for “on-site” travel. The value of this approach lies not in prediction but in surfacing assumptions, exposing ideological tensions and expanding anticipatory capacity for tourism futures. Originality/value This study challenges the dominant framing of metaverse tourism as supplementary, proposing that under specific structural and ideological conditions, virtual tourism could become a viable substitute for “on-site” travel. The framework demonstrates transferable value for interrogating contested socio-technical phenomena, equipping practitioners and researchers with anticipatory tools to navigate paradigm-shifting futures.