From exploration to aspiration: combining scenario methodologies in conservation-tourism futures

Purpose To illustrate how exploratory scenarios can serve as a foundation for aspirational scenarios through collaborative, multistakeholder processes. The paper documents the South African National Parks (SANParks) Vision 2040 project and demonstrates the practical application of combining exploratory and aspirational scenario methodologies. Design/methodology/approach Through participatory foresight, stakeholder engagement and horizon scanning, 31 key factors affecting SANParks' futures were identified. During a 5-day workshop, 10 pivotal uncertainties were identified and 6 exploratory scenarios crafted. Insights from these exploratory processes informed the co-creation of an aspirational scenario for SANParks' Vision 2040. Findings The exploratory scenarios enabled critical insights into potential futures, including the risks of collapse, the consequences of inertia and opportunities for transformation. Exploring multiple plausible futures clarified shared values and enabled diverse stakeholders to co-create a preferred vision. Originality/value The paper illustrates how exploratory scenarios can systematically inform aspirational scenario development in a conservation-tourism context, through a collaborative methodology that bridges diverse stakeholder perspectives.