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June 12, 2026Infectious Disease ReportsOpen Access

Climate Variability Drives Dengue Transmission in Bangladesh

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Authors

ASAyesha SiddiqaSylhet Agricultural UniversityPCProsenjit ChoudhurySylhet Agricultural UniversityNMNabil Jahan MahimSylhet Agricultural University

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Implication

Ecological time-series analysis investigates the impact of climate on dengue incidence in Bangladesh, indicating significant non-linear relationships.

Key Points

  • This study investigates the relationships between climatic factors and dengue incidence in Bangladesh from 2014 to 2025.
  • Ecological time-series design using monthly dengue case data (n=741,338) and meteorological variables.
  • Generalized additive model (GAM) with a negative binomial distribution was used to analyze data and capture complex relationships.
  • Cross-correlation analysis identified significant lagged associations between climatic variables and dengue incidence.
  • Highest incidence observed in Dhaka (6.53 per 100,000) and lowest in Sylhet (0.21 per 100,000).
  • Significant lagged associations identified for temperature (lag 1–3 months) and rainfall (lag 1–3 months), with humidity and wind speed also showing significant lag effects (lag 1–2 months).
  • The GAM explained 88.6% of deviance in dengue incidence, with temperature and rainfall identified as significant non-linear predictors.

Cite This Study

Siddiqa et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a2ba3fa8101cf8926f027c1https://doi.org/10.3390/idr18030055
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