More Political Turnover Less Green: Evidence from Local Public Procurement

This study examines how political turnover influences government procurement decisions, highlighting the critical role of national institutional frameworks in shaping procurement practices. Drawing on data from 2015 to 2022, we find that political turnover significantly increases non-green public procurement while reducing green public procurement. Mechanism analyses reveal that these effects are driven by heightened officials’ promotion pressure and shifts in officials’ sentiment. Our findings remain robust under endogeneity and robustness checks. Heterogeneity analyses further indicate that the positive effect on non-green procurement is more pronounced within state-owned enterprises, in the eastern region, for local officials, and within heavy-polluting and capital-intensive industries. Conversely, the negative impact on green public procurement is more significant within SOEs, in the mid-western region, for non-local officials, and in the same industrial sectors. These results underscore the importance of political turnover in influencing public procurement decisions.