What is the clinical evidence from this study?

Study design: Observational. Population: Diabetes mellitus. Intervention: Diabetes mellitus. Primary outcome: Average annual percent change (AAPC) in global DALYs for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (AAPC 1.16, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.22, p=<0.001).

April 8, 2025Scientific Reports24 citationsOpen Access

Comparative diabetes mellitus burden trends across global, Chinese, US, and Indian populations using GBD 2021 database

Q: What are the key findings of this study?

From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus increased significantly, with an average annual percent change in DALYs of 1.16, whereas the type 1 diabetes burden decreased.

YCYafei ChenHenan Academy of Agricultural Sciences GWGuoyu WangGuiyang Medical University ZHZhiyong HouChinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College

Key Result

From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus increased significantly, with an average annual percent change in DALYs of 1.16, whereas the type 1 diabetes burden decreased.

Study Design

Type

Observational

Structured PICO

Population

Global population data from the GBD 2021 database analyzing the mortality and disability-adjusted life years burden of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus across China, the United States, India, and globally from 1990 to 2021.

Outcome

Age-standardized rate (ASR) of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for T1DM and T2DMhard clinical

The global burden of T2DM is increasing, driven largely by population growth and aging, highlighting the need for targeted public health interventions, especially in India and the US.

Main Result

Effect estimate: AAPC 1.16 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.22)

p-value: p=<0.001

Limitations

Projections might be conservative as the actual situation might be more severe than predicted due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract

Diabetic mellitus (DM) poses a significant challenge and stress to global health, comparing the burden of disease in the world's three most populous countries while projecting changes in trends in age-standardized rate (ASR) -deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) up to 2050. Using GBD2021 data, we examined DM trends in China, US, India and globally for 1990-2021, and projected deaths and DALYs for DM (types 1 and 2) for 2022-2050 using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. It was found that the ASR-DALYs and deaths for T1DM are trending downward globally, while those for T2DM are trending upward. In terms of gender differences, the burden of T1DM by gender was insignificant, whereas the burden of disease was significantly higher in men with T2DM than in women. The burden of disease for T1DM peaks around the ages of 40-44 years, while the burden of disease for T2DM peaks at 65-69 years. Population growth and ageing are major factors influencing the disease burden of diabetes. The projection of ASR-deaths and DALYs globally for 2022-2050 showed a decreasing trend in T1DM and an increasing trend in T2DM (especially in China and India). The increasing burden of T2DM disease globally and in three countries by 2050 should be taken seriously.

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