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June 13, 2026South East European Journal of Economics and BusinessOpen Access

Asymmetric Effects of ISCED4 Graduates on Total and Youth Unemployment in Romania: Evidence from a NARDL Framework

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Authors

DDDaniela-Emanuela Dănăcică

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Overview

Randomized trial analyzes the impact of ISCED4 graduates on youth unemployment in Romania, suggesting temporary pressures in the labour market.

Key Points

  • This research examines how changes in post-secondary non-tertiary education graduates (ISCED4) affect total and youth unemployment rates in Romania.
  • Utilized a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework for analysis.
  • Analyzed data from 1991 to 2023, controlling for EU accession and the global financial crisis.
  • Employed robustness checks using labour force normalized ISCED4 intensity measures.
  • NARDL results indicate significant short- and long-run asymmetry in total unemployment related to ISCED4 graduates.
  • Youth unemployment shows robust short-run asymmetry; increases in ISCED4 graduates lead to short-run increases in youth unemployment.
  • Long-run coefficients for ISCED4 graduates remain statistically insignificant in both unemployment contexts.

Cite This Study

Daniela-Emanuela Dănăcică (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a2cf62dfaef96ed7f0580d1https://doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2026-0011
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