Causal estimates show negative effects of the Great Recession on fertility in younger U.S. women and Black women, indicating significant socioeconomic impacts.
This article presents causal effects of the Great Recession on U.S. fertility. Effects are identified using a new cohort discontinuity design. The design identifies effects for single-year cohorts of women, as well as for single-year cohorts of White and Black women. Estimated effects are negative for U.S. women born in the period 1964‒1992. Negative effects are largest for younger cohorts and for Black women.
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Wu et al. (2026) studied this question.
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