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June 14, 2026Statistics and Public PolicyOpen Access

Early COVID-19 Policies and Their Enduring Impact on Unemployment: Causal Evidence Through 2024

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Authors

YHYongmiao HongYZY ZhouYLY LI

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Overview

This article evaluates causal effects of Swedish and Norwegian COVID-19 policies on unemployment, suggesting long-term economic implications.

Key Points

  • This article investigates the lasting effects of initial COVID-19 policies on unemployment rates in Sweden compared to Norway.
  • Analyzed unemployment data from Q2 2020 to Q4 2024 in Sweden and Norway.
  • Compared the effects of Swedish first-wave policies to Norwegian policies during specified periods.
  • Utilized causal evidence from labor force statistics to evaluate the impact on unemployment rates.
  • Swedish policies increased unemployment by 506 per 100,000 during the first-wave period (95% CI: 406, 607).
  • Post-first-wave, these policies decreased unemployment by 585 per 100,000 (95% CI: 485, 684).
  • Overall, they led to 471 less unemployment per 100,000 (95% CI: 375, 567) from Q2 2020 to Q4 2024.

Cite This Study

Hong et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a2e4429b1cc60ccdea8a014https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2026.2685207
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