Supply-Demand Gap Analysis of Healthcare Utilization and Long-Term Care Hospital Bed Demand among Older Adults in Incheon Metropolitan City

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The study aims to estimate the demand for long-term care hospital beds for older adults in Incheon based on public data.
Utilized public data to analyze older adults aged 65 and above in Incheon Metropolitan City.
Applied Stepwise ARIMA modeling to forecast hospital bed demand.
Investigated changes in elderly population and long-term care insurance utilization from 2024 to 2050.
Projected increase of elderly population from approximately 510,000 in 2024 to 1.26 million by 2050.
Anticipated rise in long-term care insurance users from about 70,000 to 170,000.
Identified varying years of bed supply excess across regions: Central region in 2028, Northeast in 2029, South in 2031, and Northwest in 2032.

Analyzes hospital bed demand in elderly population, highlighting critical implications for policy.

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Chu et al. (2026) studied this question.

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