The impact of Trump 2.0 tariff measures on the Korean pork market

The recent strengthening of U.S. protectionist trade policies has generated significant disruptions in the structure of international agricultural and livestock trade.This study investigates the indirect spillover effects of strengthened U.S. protectionist trade policies under the Trump 2.0 administration on the Korean pork market, with a particular focus on tariff measures imposed on pork imports from the EU and Canada.A multi-country partial equilibrium model incorporating Korea, the United States, the EU, and Canada is constructed to simulate changes in U.S. tariff rates and to quantitatively assess resulting adjustments in bilateral trade flows, domestic supply, and prices.The empirical results show that U.S. import restrictions significantly reduced EU and Canadian pork exports to the United States, leading to a reallocation of export volumes toward third-country markets such as Korea.This trade diversion effect generated substantial changes in Korea's pork import structure as well as notable impacts on domestic production and price levels.The findings provide empirical evidence that trade policy changes in a specific country can exert significant indirect effects on third-country agricultural markets and suggest important policy implications, including the need for import diversification, enhanced government market monitoring, and the implementation of price stabilization measures.