An Evaluation of the Revenue and Equity Effects of Converting Exemptions and Itemized Deductions to a Single Non-Refundable Credit.

Individual taxpayer data is used to analyze a proposal to replace all itemized deductions, exemptions, and the standard deduction with a 15 percent non-refundable credit. Three models are initially evaluated: a simple credit model, a revenue-neutral credit model, and a revenue-generating credit model. These are compared to the current system of deductions, which interacts with a progressive tax structure to maximize benefits for taxpayers with the highest marginal tax rates. Recent tax law changes indicate that Congress intends to limit the benefit of deductions for wealthy taxpayers in order to generate revenue and eliminate the perception of inequity. It is the contention of this paper that this can be done more effectively through a credit mechanism than through the current system of deductions.