Майбутнє Американської Гегемонії

The demise of the bipolar system of international politics has revived interest in such closely related and contested terms as "superpower", "hegemon", "empire" and "imperialism". This article represents an attempt to define the most probable trend in the future evolution of the international system with regard to the role of the United States of America as the most prominent state power of today's world. This article seeks to analyse the US power posture in today's world politics by comparing its core capabilities to those of the classical empire of the previous century - the British Empire - with analytical emphasis on both the "hard power" and the "soft power" dimensions. The author maintains that the notion of US hegemony or even American Empire is still relevant despite a clear historic tendency of hegemonic decline seen throughout the second part of the 20th century. The United States still ranks high on the scale of most traditional power factors and, what is by far more important, they continue to be able to shape and control the scale and the volume of international exposure of all other major players within the framework of contemporary global international system. The relative decline of US influence upon world politics at the beginning of the new millennia has been effectively off-set by the profound change in the nature of American power which is now assuming the form of a structural dominance. The author's personal view is that US hegemony is not doomed to wane, given the enormous impact the United States have already made economically, politically and intellectually upon the post World War II international relations. The continuance of the US playing the pivotal role in the international politics of the 21st century will be dependent on the ability of the US political class to adapt to and to harness the social power of numerous non-state international actors that are due take over the leading role in the future world's politics. Key words: US foreign policy, empire, monopolarity, hegemony, world order. References 1. Boot, Max. (2004) The "American Empire" in the Middle East. Chester W. Nimitz Memorial Lecture. Berkeley Public Policy Press, University of California. 2. Boswell, Terry. (2004) 'American World Empire or Declining Hegemony', Journal of World-Systems Research, Volume 10, No. 2, pp. 517-526. 3. Donnelly, Thomas, Frederick W. Kagan, (2008) Truth Ground: The Future of U.S. Land Power. AEI Press. Actual problems of international relations. Release 139. 2019 4. Fergusson, Niall. (2003) An Empire in Denial: The Limits of US Imperialism, Harvard International Review, Fall, pp. 64-69. 5. Fergusson, Niall. (2004a) Colossus: The Price of America's Empire. New York: Penguin. 6. Fergusson, Niall. (2004b) Empire: The Rise and Demise of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power. New York: Basic Books. 7. Howe, Stephen.(2002) Empire: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 8. Kennedy, Paul M. (1989) The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers : Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York: Vintage Books. 9. Krauthammer, Charles.(2014) Things That Matter: Three Decades of Passions, Pastimes and Politics. Random House Large Print. 10. Morgenthau, Hans. (2005) Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: MCGraw-Hill. 11. Motyl, Alexander J. (2006) Empire Falls: Washington May be Imperious But It Is Not Imperial, Foreign Affairs, No. 85, pp.190-194. 12. Nye, Joseph S. (1990) Bound to Lead : The Changing Nature of American Power. New York : Basic Books. 13. Nye, Joseph S. (2002) The Paradox of American Power: Why the World's Only Superpower Can't Go It Alone. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 14. Operation Iraqi Freedom : A Strategic Assessment (2004), Thomas Donnelly (ed.). Washington, D.C.: AEI Press. 15. Simes, Dimitri K. (2003) America's Imperial Dilemma, Foreign Affairs, No. 82, pp. 91-102. 16. The U.S. Army and the New National Security Strategy (2003), Lynn E. Davis and Jeremy Shapiro (eds.), Santa Monica, CA : RAND. 17. The World Factbook (2011), CIA, ISSN1553-8133. 18. Watson, Adam. (1992) The Evolution of International Society. London: Routledge. 19. CIA World Factbook 2014. Available at <https://www.cia.gov/LIBRARY/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html.