Whose Kulturkampf? Asymmetric cleavage mobilisation and the 2023 Turkish elections

In Turkey’s 2023 elections, the incumbent Justice and Development Party and President Erdoğan retained power despite the severe economic crisis and the devastation caused by the earthquakes. Employing pre-election survey data from the Turkish Election Study 2023 and presenting a comparative and longitudinal account since 2002, we investigate the effects of long- and short-term factors on Turkish voters’ party preferences in general elections. We argue that the electoral campaign and behaviour were primarily defined by the ongoing Kulturkampf, rooted in three distinct yet intertwined divisions: ethnic, religious and sectarian, and cultural. The regression analyses suggest that, along with voters’ stronger ideological preferences, these long-term divisions were the primary drivers of vote choice, largely overriding negative economic evaluations in May 2023.