Sustainability performance and its determinants in smallholder coconut farming in an island region: evidence from Kepulauan Meranti Regency, Riau Province, Indonesia

Sustainability assessment of smallholder farming systems is increasingly important to ensure balanced economic viability, social well-being, and environmental integrity, particularly in island regions that face unique structural and ecological constraints. This study aims to analyze (1) the characteristics of smallholder coconut farmers and farming systems, (2) the sustainability performance of coconut farming across ecological, economic, socio-cultural, technological, and institutional dimensions, and (3) the key determining factors influencing sustainability performance in Kepulauan Meranti Regency, Riau Province, Indonesia. A survey was conducted involving 152 coconut farmers across 11 villages in three major coconut-producing sub-districts. Sustainability assessment was performed using a modified Rapfish approach (Rapcoconut) based on Multidimensional Scaling (MDS), complemented by leverage analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for sensitivity testing and validation. The results indicate that the economic and socio-cultural dimensions are moderately sustainable, while the ecological and technological dimensions are less sustainable. The institutional dimension exhibits a critical condition, classified as unsustainable. Leverage analysis identifies coconut marketing systems, fertilizer use, community perception, use of improved planting materials, and farmer group participation as the most sensitive attributes influencing sustainability performance across dimensions. Monte Carlo analysis confirms the stability and robustness of the MDS configuration. Overall, the findings highlight that improving institutional support, strengthening farmer organizations, enhancing technology adoption, and promoting environmentally sound management practices are essential to enhance the sustainability of smallholder coconut farming in island regions. This study provides empirical evidence to support policy formulation and strategic interventions for sustainable coconut agribusiness development in archipelagic contexts.