Modeling the Effects of Extreme Winds and Climate Change on Offshore Wind Turbines on the Scotian Shelf

Nova Scotia is positioned to become the first Canadian province to develop offshore wind energy. Recently, Nova Scotia announced four Wind Energy Areas (WEAs) selected for bidding following extensive review of ecological and land-use considerations. In selecting these areas, the effect of climate change and extreme winds was neglected. This study looks to assess the impact of climate change, extreme winds, and tropical cyclones on turbine siting across the Scotian Shelf with a focus on the four WEAs. Analysis of historical wind climate using ERA5 reanalysis data and return period methods reveals that extreme winds intensify with distance from shore, with the highest values concentrated near Sable Island and outer shelf regions. Fifty-year return wind speeds across the WEAs range from approximately 40.7 to 45.4 m/s, resulting in IEC Class II designation for Sable Island Bank and Class III for the remaining sites. Projections derived from CMIP6 climate models indicate that future mean wind speed changes are modest across all emission scenarios, always within 4% of the historical baseline. Critically, these projected changes do not alter the IEC turbine class designations for any WEA, suggesting that classifications based on historical data remain valid under the range of climate futures considered. Three recommendations are made to strengthen future assessments: expanding the buoy observation network on the Scotian Shelf; investigating the influence of climate indicators such as sea surface temperatures on extreme winds and tropical cyclone activity; and conducting targeted measurement campaigns within the WEAs to support site-specific analysis and developer confidence.