Current and Predicted Changes in Moderate and Heavy Snowfall in Moscow

This paper analyzes current and predicted changes in a frequency of snowfalls with different intensities in Moscow based on the 1961–2024 meteorological station data and the CMIP6 climate model ensemble. Despite the observed warming in winter and a significant reduction in the number of days with below-zero temperatures, a total frequency of heavy snowfalls in the city remains high and poses persistent risks to urban infrastructure and transport systems. Model estimates for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are indicative of a likely decrease in moderate snowfalls by the mid-twenty-first century, with a slight increase in frequency of heavy snowfalls. The results highlight the need for long-term consideration of the climate trends in urban infrastructure planning, modernization of the road service logistics, and advanced readiness for rapid road clearing during extreme snowfalls.