Zero-sum thinking in regional development? – Green and/or inclusive socio-economic development dynamics in challenged regions

This paper adopts a dynamic perspective on regional contexts to examine how structurally challenged regions simultaneously pursue green and inclusive socio-economic development. We propose a simple typology of problem types that differentiates challenged regions by the direction of change in socio-economic and environmental dynamics: (1) Prosperity on eroding foundations, (2) Catching up towards unsustainability, and (3) In an unsustainability trap. Using mixed methods across 11 case study regions in the Danube macro area, we compare them along five lines of inquiry: (i) existing assets and points of departure, (ii) framing and prioritization of goals, (iii) actor constellations and networks, (iv) modes of implementation, and (v) lessons on shifting trajectories. A core finding is the recurrence of zero-sum and trade-off thinking in challenged regions: environmental gains are often counterbalanced against (perceived or actual) socio-economic losses, albeit in ways that vary across contexts. Policy implications centre on context-sensitive interventions: designing measures that fit distinct regional problem types and trajectories. This includes reframing sustainability, conditioning and sequencing support toward directional (green and inclusive) change, strengthening multi-level coordination and brokering, embedding pilots into longer-term programmes, empowering civic actors, and measuring development direction alongside prosperity levels.