Sustainability in the UN: Linking Topic Modeling Analysis of General Debate Speeches to SDG Performance

This study explores the evolution and strategic function of sustainability discourse in the UN General Debate (UNGD) speeches from 2015 to 2024. Using structural topic modeling (STM), Shannon entropy, and correlation analysis, we uncover how international rhetoric aligns or decouples from national performance on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Twelve distinct topics were identified through STM, with eight directly linked to the SDGs. The results show a structural shift from the institutional consolidation of the 2030 Agenda to a high-entropy state of poly-crisis and fragmentation after 2020. Crucially, the correlation analysis shows an “Easier Said Than Done” phenomenon: nations with lower SDG scores exhibit higher rhetorical intensity on development themes, utilizing UN speeches as a form of symbolic policy for aspirational signaling and legitimacy. Furthermore, a stratified discursive strategy emerges, where high-performing states use discourse for validation, vulnerable nations for advocacy, and great powers—often statistically “invisible” in direct correlations—engage in strategic decoupling to redefine global norms. These findings challenge the assumption of linear diplomatic communication, demonstrating that sustainability rhetoric in the UN is a contested terrain shaped by power asymmetry, crisis response, and the discursive construction of hegemony.