Electric Micromobility in an Electrifying Transport System: Energy, Carbon and Air Pollution Impacts in the UK

Electric micromobility may reduce transport emissions, but its system-level benefits depend on which journeys and vehicles it replaces. This study assesses e-bike, e-scooter and e-cargo-bike pathways in an electrifying UK transport system using an expanded Transport Energy Air pollution Model (TEAM-UK). Socio-technical scenarios are modelled annually to 2050, estimating travel activity, energy demand, direct CO2 and NOX emissions, life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollutants, including non-exhaust sources. Fleet electrification dominates long-run reductions in tailpipe CO2 and NOX. However, e-bike-led pathways deliver the largest additional reductions in car-kilometres, energy demand, cumulative life-cycle emissions and non-exhaust PM2.5. E-cargo bike pathways provide more targeted benefits, while e-scooter pathways produce modest system-level gains. Electric micromobility is most effective when embedded in policies that substitute car and van travel with lighter, low-energy modes.