Feeding Refineries: The Extent and Limitations of Meeting European Ethylene Demand with Agricultural Residues

Biogenic carbon, such as that from agricultural lignocellulosic residues, is a partial solution to replacing fossil carbon in plastics and chemical products in the materials transition. Mobilizing residual biomass on the scale required for a full transition will require a re-organization of supply chains, as biomass is dispersed across the European continent and not necessarily close to existing processing centers. This study modeled a spatial scenario of a biomass to ethylene system using pyrolysis conversion ratios and a 200 km supply radius to evaluate the magnitude of ethylene producible and resulting supply chain requirements. Crucially, feedstock biomass was limited to sustainable withdrawal levels to avoid incorporating unsustainable soil carbon loss. The results show that with 40 pyrolysis facilities located strategically across Europe, residual agricultural biomass could produce around 4,800 kt of ethylene at 20 industrial crackers, roughly 20 % of existing ethylene demand. Several industrial sites are unsuitably located to receive biomass and are left out of the supply chain, illustrating a shift in future relevance. Managing the circular and land use aspects of production may be critical to maintaining a positive environmental impact.